Elise Stefanik has made waves as a MAGA juggernaut in the U.S. House and a staunch, vocal defender of former President Donald Trump. This elevated platform has provided the New York Republican a springboard to audition for the role of Trump’s running mate as he cakewalks through the GOP presidential primary. And boy has she put on the performance of a lifetime.
She threw her weight fully behind the former president in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 midterms, offering him a full-throated endorsement while other Republicans blamed him for the party’s various losses. She campaigned with Trump and even was invited to the stage after his primary win in New Hampshire.
She even quietly deleted a statement that January 6th rioters “must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law” and now refers to those now being prosecuted for the attack as “hostages.” Loyalty is of the utmost importance to Trump and Stefanik hasn’t just kissed his ring - she’s practically frenched it. She’s all in for Trump and the bet just might pay off for the Congresswoman from New York.
Stefanik is now considered a frontrunner for the coveted VP spot once Trump inevitably secures the GOP presidential nomination. Betting markets, political pundits, and Trump allies alike all agree that she has a great shot. Even Trump himself is impressed.
“She’s a killer,” boasted the former president of Stefanik at a December dinner they both attended with Mar-a-Lago members.
Would you believe that less than a decade ago, she was being referred to as a Rockefeller Republican? A self-described “big-tent conservative”? An establishment darling?
Stefanik began her political career as a U.S. Domestic Policy Council staffer in the Bush administration. Clearly impressed with her work, she soon landed a job in the office of Bush Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten. Having kept her nose to the grind, her journey up the establishment ladder reached new heights as she managed Paul Ryan’s debate preparation for the 2012 vice presidential debate.
The fruits of her labor were… limited. Analyst Nate Silver posited that although both candidates performed well in the debate, Biden’s forceful attacks against Ryan helped subdue the momentum the Romney campaign was enjoying after the first presidential debate. Of course, the Romney/Paul ticket eventually lost the election and now Stefanik had no administration to work for.
Opportunity came knocking, however, as Stefanik moved back home to New York and decided to mount a challenge to Democratic Representative Bill Owens.
“New ideas and new leadership” read the title of her glossy announcement ad.
“Common sense solutions” she argued within the same ad.
With establishment conservative language down pat and a well-crafted resume, Stefanik was practically a party insider at this point as Republican chairs backed her 2014 run. Even Romney himself weighed in and endorsed her in the primary.
Once Owens announced his retirement, it was simply smooth sailing for Stefanik. She easily defeated Democratic opponent Aaron Wolfe by 21.7% and even already received praise as a “rising Republican star” and “favorite among GOP leadership.” Importantly, Stefanik decided to mold herself as the voice of a new generation rather than an anti-establishment figure as she focused on her history-making role as the youngest woman in Congress. She fostered a great relationship with House leadership and even clashed with the right-wing, populist “Tea Party” section of the party.
But less than a year later, a businessman waltzed down a condominium escalator and changed the face of the Republican Party.
Stefanik was less than thrilled.
“I think he has been insulting to women,” she told WAMC Northeast Public Radio in August 2015. She went on to predict that Trump’s first debate would be his campaign’s “peak moment” before his numbers drop.
But the numbers never fell. And as Trump secured the nomination in June, Stefanik issued a tepid endorsement of the nominee.
"I will support my party's nominee in the fall,'' Stefanik said in a statement. "My primary focus is serving my constituents to the best of my ability and I'm proud to have spent my first term in Congress working to deliver on my campaign promise to bring new ideas and a new generation of leadership to Washington.''
This was a consistent theme for the Congresswoman in the months leading up to the 2016 presidential election. That October, Roll Call wrote that Stefanik was walking a “political tightrope” as she condemned many of Trump’s most grievous controversies but continued pledging to support the party’s nominee. Stefanik was first and foremost fiercely loyal to her party and in the moment, that meant begrudgingly supporting Donald Trump.
When Trump shocked the nation and won, Stefanik still maintained her balance on this precarious neutral tightrope. She publicly opposed Trump’s infamous Muslim ban and was one of the few Republicans in Congress who voted against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a policy touted as Trump’s first major legislative win.
It wasn’t until 2019 when Stefanik’s opportunism overtook her establishment principles as she soon embraced the President… and the spotlight. As Trump faced his first impeachment for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, Stefanik’s confrontation of Democratic Representative and lead impeachment manager Adam Schiff made national waves. She passionately defended Trump and soon began to adopt his blustering, combative personality.
“A Trumpist Star Is Born” hailed Politico.
It was then and there that the old Stefanik died and in her ashes rose a leading MAGA figure. Stefanik realized quickly that she could quit this precarious cat-and-mouse game of bipartisanship and gain power rather easily. In the 2017-2018 Congressional session, Stefanik ranked as the 19th most bipartisan member of Congress. By 2021, she’d fallen to position number 100. At just age 39 (practically a baby in today’s aging Congress), Stefanik has plenty of time to further position herself as a leader in Trump’s ever-growing wing of the Republic Party.
Interestingly, Stefanik is honestly still an establishment party insider when you think about it. As the Chair of the House Republican Conference, she’s ranked number four in her conference’s leadership. It’s just the establishment has changed.
The Grand Old Party simply isn’t run by your Romney or Bush types anymore - it hasn’t been for almost a decade. The moment Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election was the moment when most GOP primary voters began to reject Stefanik and company’s brand of milquetoast, “lowercase c” conservatism. It took her a second, but Stefanik finally recognized this unprecedented shift was here for the long haul and she soon adapted into a skillful political chameleon.
Stefanik’s story isn't too unique in today’s political landscape. Many Republicans have learned a hard and fast lesson - either embrace Trump or get the hell out. It’s even how Stefanik fast-tracked her way up House leadership and earned her current Chair gig. Remember, she replaced outspoken Trump critic Liz Cheney who then went on to lose renomination to a Trump-backed challenger by more than 37 points. Stefanik has no plans to stand up to Trump whatsoever as she likely seeks a powerful role in a potential upcoming administration.
GOP voters have sent a clear message that for now, they are the party of Trump - Stefanik got the memo. Will her unwavering support of the President gift her a ticket to the White House? It’s up in the air for now.
In the meantime, she’s earned herself a cushy position in MAGA political circles and will likely be a prominent GOP figure for many years (if not decades) to come.
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